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Statisticians prove home team bias by football referees

publication date: Sep 25, 2009
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Statisticians at the LSE have produced research that they say confirms the common view that referees add more time at the end of football games to the potential benefit of the home team.

'Favouritism under Social Pressure' published in the Review of Economics and Statistics draws upon several seasons' data from the Spanish premier division, La Liga. It cites evidence of biased refereeing during injury time, which is typically extended beyond the average three minutes if the home team is behind, but shortened if it leads. And crucially, it says "referees are more speedy in blowing the whistle for the end of the game if the home team scores, thus giving the visitors less time to respond".

And it seems the phenomena is international. Commenting in www.guardian.co.uk LSE Director Howard Davies, a Manchester City supporter, says there is "solid evidence that in recent seasons more extra time has been added at the end of games that Manchester United were not winning". Injury time clocks in at just under 3 minutes on average when they are in the lead at the end of full time, but runs to over 4 minutes when they trail the away side.

The LSE researchers, Luis Garicano, Ignacio Palacios-Huerta and Canice Prendergast, also sought to find a rationale for the practice. Interestingly, given recent scandals elsewhere in the sporting world, they rule out corruption. Instead, they postulate that referees respond to crowd pressure. The bigger and more vocal the home crowd, the more biased referees become.



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