RSSeNEWS to be determined...

An analytical model developed by renowned American statistician Nate Silver will be put to the test next month when residents in the US state of Maine vote on a challenge to the legalisation of gay marriage.

Silver's model predicts how individual states will vote against a ban on gay marriage. He forecasts that the challenge in Maine will fail.

The state legalised gay marriage in May, and the new law was due to take effect in September. But opponents collected more than 100,00 signatures - almost twice the number required - to mount a challenge. Residents will vote on the challenge in November.

Silver's model uses three variables: the year in which an amendment is voted upon, the percentage of people who told 2008 Gallup tracking surveys that religion was an important part of their daily lives, and the percentage of white evangelicals in the state.

The statistician found that 56.5% of Maine residents oppose a ban. His model proved extremely accurate in forecasting the result of a similar vote in California in 2008.

Nate Silver explaining his poll forecasts (photo: WhiteAfrican)

Silver, 31, first gained attention for his system that forecasts the performance and career development of players in Major League Baseball. His public profile increased dramatically as a result of his forecasts for the outcome of the United States presidential election.

In the six months before the vote he became a regular contributor to national print media, online, and cable news media. Silver predicted the correct winner in 49 of the 50 states.

Currently, Silver is applying his analytical skills to senate rankings, which monitor the likelihood of states changing parties.

In April 2009 Time Magazine included him in its Time 100 list of the world's most influential people.