RSSeNEWS to be determined...

Divorce rates in US states that have banned gay marriage have increased, whilst states where the ban has not been imposed lead the overall trend in decline.

The analysis by statistician and pollster Nate Silver, shows that "overall, the states which had enacted a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage as of 1/1/08 saw their divorce rates rise by 0.9 per cent over the five-year interval. States which had not adopted a constitutional ban ... experienced an 8.0 per cent decline, on average, in their divorce rates".

Silver comments that although the differences between states that have and have not imposed bans is significant, "they do not necessarily imply causation."

He cites a 21 per cent decline between 2003-8 in divorces in Massachusetts, which boasts the lowest divorce rate in the US and  legalised gay marriage in 2004. At the other end of the scale, Alaska experienced the highest increase in divorces – 17.2 per cent over the period - and was the first state to prohibit same-sex marriage, back in 1998.

Silver notes that "the decision to ban same-sex marriage does not occur randomly throughout the states, but instead is strongly correlated with other factors, such as religiosity and political ideology, which we have made no attempt to account for. Nor do we know in which way the causal arrow might point. It could be that voters who have more marital problems of their own are more inclined to deny the right of marriage to same-sex couples."

Silver says he deliberately chose a "simple" analytical approach but says "there is probably now enough data … to engage in more sophisticated longitudinal studies … which might produce more robust conclusions."

He published his findings just two days before the US Federal Court in San Francisco began a hearing to determine the legality of same-sex marriage bans.

The hearing is a challenge to 'Proposition 8', voted in by the Californian electorate, that banned gay marriage in the state in November 2008. Proposition 8 overturned an earlier ruling by California's Supreme Court that approved same-sex marriage.

The issue has caused bitter divisions and whatever the outcome in the Federal Court is likely to end up in the US Supreme Court. That court would determine the position nationwide, and leave no option for further appeal.

photo of US Federal Court in San Francisco: SF Mike