RSSeNEWS to be determined...

Pictured from left: Francis Maude MP (Conservative), Vince Cable MP (Liberal Democrat) and James Plaskitt MP (Labour)

The question of whether statistics are being used accurately has become a daily theme running through news coverage and political commentary recently. The Conservative party has been criticised for misusing crime statistics, the Labour party was brought to task for misinterpreting free school meals data and the UK Statistics Authority asserted its role as independent guardian of official statistics. Meanwhile, the Society organised a meeting to hear MPs from the three main UK political parties outline their policies relating to official statistics.

The meeting on 22 February, organised by the Official Statistics Section and the National Statistics working party, followed hot on the heels of the outcry over the use of crime figures in Parliament. Society president David Hand sent a letter to party leaders in advance of the meeting urging them to play it straight:

‘The RSS encourages candidates of all parties, and none, to use statistics in presenting and making their case to the electorate. However, the Society stresses that such use must not be at the expense of statistical integrity – all use must be appropriate and accurate.

‘We hope that all party leaders will endorse this approach ... we ask you to redouble your efforts in ensuring this throughout and beyond your election campaign. The Royal Statistical Society stands ready to offer advice where appropriate and to assist the debate on trust in official statistics.’

Westminster Central Hall was packed with around 350 people waiting to hear the views of Francis Maude MP (Conservative), James Plaskitt MP (Labour) and Vince Cable MP (Liberal Democrat). In opening remarks, David Hand spoke of the regrettable lack of trust in official statistics. ‘The lack of trust does not reflect the quality of the figures being produced,’ he said. ‘Instead, it represents a combination of a number of things, including a lack of understanding of the complexities of official statistics, mistrust arising from the misuse of statistics, either deliberate or accidental, and a perceived difference between the ground truth as the public see things and the overall published statistical summaries.’

He added that, ‘statistics are the mirror through which we view society. The public need to have confidence that that mirror is not cracked. This is critically important as we approach a general election. For the public to trust politicians, they must first trust the basis on which the politicians are making their assertions.’

James Plaskitt (a former minister) said that there was a need to rebuild trust in the entire political system of which statistics was a particular part. He wanted an official statistical system that was comprehensive and robust, that was independent and that provided the public with a clear ‘kitemark’ on statistical quality. He questioned the position of the UK Statistics Authority as scrutineer and publisher of official statistics and likened it to being both scorer and umpire.

On the question of pre-release access to statistics, none of the three party representatives wanted this abolished, but Plaskitt was keen to see all official statistics come under a code of practice, although he was unconcerned about whether publication was independent.

For the Conservative Party, Francis Maude, another former minister, wondered whether there were too many statistics now being collected. Outlining the importance of transparency, he mentioned Conservative plans to set up an independent organisation to examine fiscal policy and to invigilate official projections of government budget and debt. But he said that politicians should exercise control over information collection, citing his experience in government in the 1980s and the burdensome collection of business statistics at the time.

On the question of the census, Maude welcomed the Beyond 2011 project which was looking at ways in which information currently collected in the census could be compiled, which he thought could lead to more timely and cost-effective data.

For the Liberal Democrats, Vince Cable said he had been closely involved in the passage of the Statistics and Registration Service Act through the House of Commons, but he emphasised the need for a system of unimpeachable integrity, pointing out that while politicians might misuse statistics, others could too where they had strong motivations to do so.

Cable suggested a ‘data commissioner’ along the lines of the information commissioner, to determine what data people were entitled to know, saying that this was a ‘major area of opaqueness’. He said that companies should have a stringent test of proofs that they must satisfy before they can withhold data and the data commissioner would be the judge of that.

‘I am afraid that it will not be possible for the Authority to give advance clearance to your, or anyone else’s, future statements on this subject – or indeed on any other. In assessing whether statistics are being used properly, and not in a misleading way, much depends on the accuracy of the language which is used, the context, and the inferences which are drawn from the statistics.’

Sir Michael Scholar, chair, UK Statistics Authority in letter to Chris Grayling MP on the subject of crime statistics

Beyond Westminster

Outside the world of government, broadcasters have brought in statistical analysts and a crop of online tools are helping provide instant data visualisation to help people understand data and statistics. Google’s recently released Public Data Explorer enables users to input data and display the results as line graphs, bar charts, maps and bubble charts. The visualisations are dynamic… embedded charts and links can update automatically so always display the latest available data. Scales and topics can be changed in real time and different entries highlighted.

Gallup has published poll data using a tool called Wordle. This generates a word cloud, with words being given different sizes and prominence based on the frequency with which they appear in the data. This was demonstrated by statistician Nate Silver, by feeding responses to a Gallup survey on US voters’ reaction to Obama’s healthcare reform plans into Wordle. The resulting word cloud gave a visual interpretation of the message received by those both for and against the reforms, underlining the challenge for politicians in getting their message across clearly to the electorate.