RSSeNEWS to be determined...

Research by two statisticians suggests that the common current practice in National Hockey League (NHL) matches of not 'pulling' the goalkeeper in exchange for a sixth attacker till the last minute of the game is not the best strategy.

The paper Strategies for Pulling the Goalie in Hockey by David Beaudoin and Tim B. Swartz cites "some surprising strategies … which do not appear to be used by NHL coaches." Specifically, it proposes pulling the goalie four minutes before the end of the match.

Swartz, currently in the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at Simon Fraser University in Canada, advocates more risk taking. “The point is you’re going to lose anyway if you don’t score so you might as well push the envelope a little bit and increase your scoring rate,” he says.

Beaudoin and Swartz have developed a simulator that assesses strategies for pulling the goalkeeper in NHL matches. The simulator uses parameter estimates derived by analysing an extensive data set using constrained Bayesian estimation via Markov chain methods. The approach is novel as it breaks the game down in finer detail and more realistic situations and introduces the effect of penalties and the 'home-ice' advantage.

Swartz, who received his PhD in statistics from the University of Toronto in 1986, researches statistical computing, Bayesian methods and applications, inference and statistics in sport. His book co-authored with M Evans, Approximating Integrals via Monte Carlo and Deterministic Methods, was published by Oxford University Press in 2000.

Swartz has worked on more than 50 published research papers include 'Bayesian analysis of directed graphs data with applications to social networks' (2004), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, 53, 249-260. He has studied a wide range of sports and has had several papers published on one day cricket matches including 'Applications of the Duckworth-Lewis method' (2000), University of Technology, New South Wales, Australia.