RSSeNEWS to be determined...

The UK Statistics Authority has confirmed its view that the British Crime Survey (BCS) provides a more reliable measure of the national trend in violent crime than reported crime figures published by the police, and that simplistic comparisons of the two metrics prior to 2002 are not valid.

In a letter to shadow home secretary Alan Johnson, UK Statistics Authority chair Sir Michael Scholar reiterated that "It is not possible, without qualification, to compare police recorded statistics of violent crime between the late 1990s and 2008/09 (the latest year for which there are figures), because of the introduction of the National Crime Recording Standard in 2002/03."

Johnson raised the issue with the UK Statistics Authority after PM David Cameron claimed at Prime Minister's Question Time on 7 July that violent crime had almost doubled under the Labour government.

In his response, Scholar quoted Home Office figures showing that "police recorded violence against the person stood at 845 thousand in 2002/03, rising to 1,060 thousand in 2005/06, then subsequently falling to 903 thousand in 2008/09. Over the same period, offences reported to the police in which a firearm was used (excluding air-weapons, which gives a better indication of trends for the more serious firearm offences) stood at 10,200 in 2002/03, rising to 11,100 in 2005/06, then subsequently falling to 8,200 in 2008/09".

Johnson also sought the UK Statistics Authority's views on whether the ongoing review of the methodology underpinning the British Crime Survey called into question the statistics themselves. Sir Michael responded that the Authority does not view this as the case, "although we must await the publication of the review itself. We regard it as good practice for Departments involved in the production and publication of official statistics to undertake periodic methodological reviews of this kind."

This latest controversy echoes events prior to the election when the UK Statistics Authority intervened over then shadow home secretary Chris Grayling's use of crime figures. Scholar said that "The Authority does not wish to be drawn into the political debate, and cannot assume the role of a referee on each occasion that an official statistic is misquoted or misinterpreted. But I hope that those who comment in Parliament and elsewhere on trends in violent crime will take account of the points made in this letter."

BCS 2009/10 figures published on 15 July showed that violent crimes fell 1 per cent compared with the previous year, which was described as "not a significant change".